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Worldwide PC shipments are set to rapidly decline by 9.5% in 2022, according to Gartner, Inc.’s latest forecast. The PC market is expected to experience the steepest decline of all device segments this year.
“A perfect storm of geopolitical turmoil, high inflation, currency fluctuations and supply chain disruptions has dampened business and consumer demand for devices around the world and is poised to hit the PC market the hardest in 2022,” said Ranjit Atwal, senior director analyst at Gartner. “Consumer PC demand will rapidly decline by 13.1% in 2022 and will decline much faster than business PC demand, which is forecast to decline 7.2% year over year.”
From a regional perspective, the EMEA PC market is forecast to register a 14% decline in 2022, driven by a lack of PC consumer demand. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine, price increase and unavailability of products due to blockade in China significantly affect consumer demand in the region.
Overall, global shipments of total devices (PCs, tablets and mobile phones) are rapidly declining by 7.6% in 2022, with Greater China and Eastern Europe including Eurasia recording double-digit declines (see Table 1).
Table 1. Forecast of Global Shipments by Device Type, 2021-2022 (Million Units)
|
Device Type |
2021 Shipments |
2021 Growth (%) |
2022 Shipments |
2022 Growth (%) |
|
a computer |
342 |
11.0 |
310 |
-9.5 |
|
Tablet |
156 |
-0.8 |
142 |
-9.0 |
|
Mobile phone |
1 567 |
5.0 |
1 456 |
-7.1 |
|
Whole Appliances |
2,065 |
5.5 |
1 907 |
-7.6 |
The PC segment includes desktop-based, notebooks, ultra-mobile premium and Chromebooks. Tablets include all Android and iOS.
Source: Gartner (June 2022)
5G Phone Shipments in Greater China Expected to Decline in 2022
While global mobile phone shipments are expected to decline 7.1% in 2022, smartphone shipments are estimated to decline 5.8% year over year. Regionally, Greater China will be hardest hit with smartphone shipments rapidly declining by 18.3% in 2022.
Regionally, Greater China has led the adoption of 5G phones over the past two years. However, the collapse of the smartphone market in the region will mean a 2% decline in 5G phone shipments in 2022, after a 65% increase in 2021.
“At the beginning of the year, the Greater China 5G phone market was expected to show double-digit growth,” Atwal said. “The impact of China’s zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy and resulting lockdowns has dramatically reversed this trend. Large numbers of consumers have stopped buying non-essential items including 5G mobile phones.”
In 2022, Gartner expects worldwide 5G phone shipments to total 710 million units. Although this is an increase of 29% from 2021, it is lower than previous expectations. “The growth rate is down significantly from an expected increase of 47% at the beginning of the year, with a resulting loss of 95 million 5G phone shipments,” Atwal said.
The demand for 5G phones is expected to accelerate in 2023. “Much of the migration to 5G will happen by default as users will replace older 4G mobile phones at the end of their life cycle with 5G-compatible smartphones,” said. Atwal.
Gartner clients can read more in “Forecast: PCs, Ultramobiles and Mobile Phones, Worldwide, 2020-2026, 2Q22 Update.”
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